Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Howard County's flood story is Ellicott City. Flash floods tore through the historic town in July 2016 and again in May 2018, and the county has since assembled more than $300 million in local, state and federal funding for its response, the Ellicott City Safe and Sound plan. FEMA's hazard mitigation grants to the whole county total $1.4 million since fiscal 1999.
What drives the risk
Inland flooding accounts for 58% of the county's $52.0 million in expected annual losses. In 2016 the National Weather Service estimated more than 6 inches of rain near Ellicott City, much of it in 90 minutes or less, and in 2018 it reported 6 to 12 inches in the heaviest band; three people died across the two floods. Heat waves are the second-largest modeled loss at $4.8 million, and the county's 2023 risk assessment gives extreme temperature its top score, tied with lightning.
Social vulnerability scores 10.6, the lowest score FEMA gives, and community resilience rates Very High at 92.9. Together they pull the overall risk score of 72.4 well below the loss score of 84.3.
Where the mitigation money has gone
The largest FEMA mitigation grant, $540 thousand in Advanced Assistance for Ellicott City, came through Maryland's COVID-19 declaration in fiscal 2020. After the 2016 flood, the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program paid $273 thousand toward culvert work. Five pre-disaster applications from fiscal 2016 to 2019, for culverts, flood storage, stream restoration and infrastructure protection, were denied; together they sought about $12.5 million in federal money.
The Safe and Sound money came from elsewhere: according to the county, a $75 million Environmental Protection Agency WIFIA loan, more than $100 million in local funds and more than $75 million in state and federal grants. The H-7 and Quaker Mill detention ponds were finished in 2022 and 2023, and the Extended North Tunnel, an 18-foot-diameter tunnel that will carry floodwater to the Patapsco, is expected to be substantially complete in fall 2027.
The mitigation plan
The 2024-2029 Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan covers the county alone, since Howard has no incorporated municipalities, and FEMA's approval runs to November 5, 2028. It reports that the county has bought about 20 properties in the Tiber-Hudson watershed since 2019. Since 2020, stormwater rules for the Tiber-Hudson and Plumtree watersheds have required new development to manage a storm like 2016's: 6.6 inches in 3.55 hours.
What we'd look at next
Ellicott City shows what flood mitigation at scale takes when FEMA's pre-disaster grants don't come through: a federal loan, county money and state and federal grants, assembled over years. The next question is the rest of the county. Flooding is 58% of modeled loss countywide, and the short-storm standard applies only to the two watersheds around Ellicott City; we'd test whether other flash-flood-prone watersheds need the same rule before the next storm arrives.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Howard County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Inland flooding leads at $29.9M a year.
- Inland Flooding$29.9M58%
- Heat Wave$4.8M9%
- Hurricane$3.7M7%
- Strong Wind$3.2M6%
- Earthquake$2.2M4%
- Cold Wave$1.8M3%
- Tornado$1.6M3%
- Lightning$1.5M3%
Of the $52M total: buildings $34.7M, people $15.8M, agriculture $1.4M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flooding | $29.89M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 72 |
| Heat Wave | $4.81M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 92 |
| Hurricane | $3.7M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 30 |
| Strong Wind | $3.22M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 306 |
| Earthquake | $2.24M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Cold Wave | $1.78M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 30 |
| Tornado | $1.57M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 16 |
| Lightning | $1.49M | Relatively High | Relatively High | — |
| Drought | $1.17M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 161 |
| Hail | $1.02M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 140 |
| Winter Weather | $845K | Relatively High | Relatively High | 229 |
| Ice Storm | $217K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 60 |
| Wildfire | $9K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Landslide | $3K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Coastal Flooding | $632 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Howard County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 8
- Federal share
- $1.4M
- Fiscal years
- 1999–2020
By program
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$1.3M · 6 projects
- PDM · Pre-Disaster Mitigation$40K · 1 project
- FMA · Flood Mitigation Assistance$30K · 1 project
Most recent projects
FY2020 · HMGP · Approved$540K
Advanced Assistance
Ellicott City
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$273K
Stormwater Management - Culverts
Howard (County)
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$60K
Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Ellicott City
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$129K
Generators
Howard (County)
FY2013 · HMGP · Closed$34K
Warning Systems (as a Component of a Planned, Adopted, and Exercised Risk Reduction Plan)
Columbia
FY2008 · PDM · Closed$40K
Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Howard County Office of Emergency Management
FY2007 · FMA · Closed$30K
FMA or CRS Plan
Howard County Department of Fire Rescue Services
FY1999 · HMGP · Closed$280K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
Howard (County)
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Advanced AssistanceHMGP · DR-4491-0006-R | Ellicott City | $540K | Approved |
| 2016 | Stormwater Management - CulvertsHMGP · DR-4279-0002-R | Howard (County) | $273K | Closed |
| 2016 | Local Multihazard Mitigation PlanHMGP · DR-4261-0002-P | Ellicott City | $60K | Closed |
| 2014 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4170-0014-R | Howard (County) | $129K | Closed |
| 2013 | Warning Systems (as a Component of a Planned, Adopted, and Exercised Risk Reduction Plan)HMGP · DR-4091-0003-F | Columbia | $34K | Closed |
| 2008 | Local Multihazard Mitigation PlanPDM · PDMC-PL-03-MD-2008-002 | Howard County Office of Emergency Management | $40K | Closed |
| 2007 | FMA or CRS PlanFMA · FMA-PL-03-MD-2007-001 | Howard County Department of Fire Rescue Services | $30K | Closed |
| 1999 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineHMGP · DR-1303-0006-R | Howard (County) | $280K | Closed |
What the money paid for most often
- Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan ×2
- Advanced Assistance ×1
- Generators ×1
- FMA or CRS Plan ×1
Hazard mitigation plan
2024-2029 Howard County Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan
FEMA approved it and the County Council adopted it on November 6, 2023; it expires November 5, 2028. The county publishes annual reviews, most recently in August 2026, and a companion 2024-2029 Flood Mitigation Plan.
- Adopted
- November 2023
- FEMA approval runs to
- November 5, 2028
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
- Baltimore CountyRelatively Moderate risk · Inland Flooding$157.1Ma year
- Carroll CountyRelatively Low risk · Inland Flooding$32.3Ma year
- Frederick CountyRelatively Low risk · Inland Flooding$49.9Ma year
- Montgomery CountyRelatively Moderate risk · Inland Flooding$126.4Ma year
- Prince George's CountyRelatively Moderate risk · Inland Flooding$121.8Ma year
- Anne Arundel CountyRelatively Moderate risk · Inland Flooding$74.7Ma year
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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