Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Downtown Frederick shows what a major flood control project can do. After Carroll Creek flooded the historic business district in 1976, the city invested in a $60 million, 10-year project that took hundreds of properties out of FEMA's mapped floodplain. Inland flooding still makes up 65% of the county's $49.9 million in expected annual losses, and most of its recent FEMA mitigation money has come through Congress.
What drives the risk
Flooding here tends to be fast. The county's 2022 hazard plan attributes 76% of damaging flood events to flash flooding. Two rounds of heavy rain in May 2018 set off numerous water rescues, and in July 2019 about 6.3 inches in a few hours pushed Carroll Creek over its banks, though without significant damage. FEMA's index counts 131 inland flood events from 1996 to 2023, the third-most in Maryland.
Social vulnerability scores 10.6, the lowest score FEMA gives. With community resilience also relatively high at 77.8, the overall risk score of 74.2 sits well below the loss score of 83.6.
Where the mitigation money has gone
FEMA's records show $5.0 million since fiscal 2003, and about half of it came through three congressionally directed grants. The largest, $1.3 million in fiscal 2024, pays for a solar-charged microgrid to keep the county's emergency operations center, 911 center and data center running. In fiscal 2022, $817 thousand went to removing a significant-to-high hazard dam in Point of Rocks Community Park and restoring the stream, and $482 thousand to the City of Frederick's Motter Avenue flood project.
Post-disaster Hazard Mitigation Grant Program money paid mostly for plans, generators, warning systems and outreach. The county's only FEMA-funded buyout, of two properties, followed Hurricane Isabel in fiscal 2003. Since fiscal 2020, Flood Mitigation Assistance has added $535 thousand for Motter Avenue's first phase, and fiscal 2022 grants from the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program pay to study flood fixes for downtown Frederick and West Patrick Street.
The mitigation plan
The 2022 plan covers the county, 12 municipalities and three colleges, and FEMA's approval runs to May 18, 2027. The county started its next update in 2026, and staff told its Sustainable Monocacy Commission that the state wants more emphasis on drought, extreme heat and shovel-ready projects. The 2022 plan counts 31 repetitive loss properties with 82 flood insurance claims among them.
What we'd look at next
The first priority is timing: if the update isn't approved by May 18, 2027, the county and its towns lose eligibility for FEMA mitigation grants until it is. The second is the pipeline: the city's downtown and West Patrick Street flood studies should come out of this update as shovel-ready projects, which the state is asking for and congressional earmarks can't be counted on to fund.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Frederick County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Inland flooding leads at $32.2M a year.
- Inland Flooding$32.2M65%
- Tornado$3.5M7%
- Heat Wave$3.1M6%
- Hurricane$2.6M5%
- Strong Wind$2M4%
- Earthquake$1.7M3%
- Lightning$1.2M2%
- Hail$1.1M2%
Of the $49.9M total: buildings $33.2M, people $14.8M, agriculture $1.8M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flooding | $32.24M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 131 |
| Tornado | $3.5M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 29 |
| Heat Wave | $3.1M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 71 |
| Hurricane | $2.6M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 32 |
| Strong Wind | $2.02M | Relatively High | Relatively Moderate | 293 |
| Earthquake | $1.69M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Lightning | $1.23M | Relatively High | Relatively High | — |
| Hail | $1.06M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 144 |
| Drought | $898K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 161 |
| Cold Wave | $710K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 34 |
| Winter Weather | $645K | Relatively High | Relatively High | 272 |
| Ice Storm | $151K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 68 |
| Wildfire | $19K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Landslide | $7K | Very Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Avalanche | $66 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Frederick County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 19
- Federal share
- $5M
- Fiscal years
- 2003–2024
By program
- LPDM · Legislative Pre-Disaster Mitigation$2.6M · 3 projects
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$1M · 9 projects
- BRIC · Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities$809K · 5 projects
- FMA · Flood Mitigation Assistance$588K · 2 projects
Most recent projects
FY2024 · LPDM · Obligated$1.27M
Other Equipment Purchase and Installation
Frederick County, Maryland
FY2023 · BRIC · Awarded$88K
Big Hunting Creek Stream Restoration- Thurmont Waste Water Treatment Plant
Town of Thurmont
FY2022 · BRIC · Awarded$198K
West Patrick St Flood Improvements CIP 350013
City of Frederick
FY2022 · BRIC · Awarded$381K
Downtown Flood Improvements CIP 350011
City of Frederick
FY2022 · BRIC · Awarded$63K
Brunswick Crossing Pond #13 Retrofit
Brunswick Mayors Office
FY2022 · BRIC · Awarded$79K
Brunswick Shopping Center and Apartments Pond Retrofit
Brunswick Mayors Office
FY2022 · LPDM · Obligated$817K
Vegetation Management - Erosion
Frederick County Government
FY2022 · LPDM · Obligated$482K
Community Flood Mitigation Project
City of Frederick
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Other Equipment Purchase and InstallationLPDM · LPDM-PJ-03-MD-2024-001 | Frederick County, Maryland | $1.27M | Obligated |
| 2023 | Big Hunting Creek Stream Restoration- Thurmont Waste Water Treatment PlantBRIC · EMP-2023-BR-002-0006 | Town of Thurmont | $88K | Awarded |
| 2022 | West Patrick St Flood Improvements CIP 350013BRIC · EMP-2022-BR-009-0005 | City of Frederick | $198K | Awarded |
| 2022 | Downtown Flood Improvements CIP 350011BRIC · EMP-2022-BR-009-0004 | City of Frederick | $381K | Awarded |
| 2022 | Brunswick Crossing Pond #13 RetrofitBRIC · EMP-2022-BR-009-0002 | Brunswick Mayors Office | $63K | Awarded |
| 2022 | Brunswick Shopping Center and Apartments Pond RetrofitBRIC · EMP-2022-BR-009-0009 | Brunswick Mayors Office | $79K | Awarded |
| 2022 | Vegetation Management - ErosionLPDM · LPDM-PJ-03-MD-2022-002 | Frederick County Government | $817K | Obligated |
| 2022 | Community Flood Mitigation ProjectLPDM · LPDM-PJ-03-MD-2022-004 | City of Frederick | $482K | Obligated |
What the money paid for most often
- Engineering and feasibility studies ×5
- Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan ×3
- Warning Systems (as a Component of a Planned, Adopted, and Exercised Risk Reduction Plan) ×2
- Generators ×1
Hazard mitigation plan
Frederick County Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Plan 2022
Covers the county, 12 municipalities and three colleges. The county adopted it on May 19, 2022, the day FEMA's approval began, and started its next update in 2026 with a new plan anticipated in 2027.
- Adopted
- May 2022
- FEMA approval runs to
- May 18, 2027
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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