Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Baltimore County expects bigger losses from natural hazards than any other Maryland jurisdiction: $157.1 million a year, 15% of the statewide total. Its risk score, 94, still sits just below Baltimore City's, because FEMA rates the county's social vulnerability relatively low and its community resilience very high. The losses are real either way, and two hazards carry most of them.
What drives the risk
Inland flooding leads at $67.3 million a year, 43% of the total, and the county has logged 158 inland flood events since 1996, more than any other in Maryland. FEMA's model counts rain that overwhelms drainage as well as overflowing streams. Turner Station, a historically underserved community, is at risk of flooding in heavy rain because of its low elevation and poor drainage.
Heat waves come next at $42.6 million a year, the largest heat loss of any Maryland jurisdiction. The Maryland Department of Health counted 5 heat-related deaths in the county in the 2025 heat season, second only to Baltimore City.
Coastal flooding ranks tenth, at $1.6 million a year. That is an average, and averages smooth over rare surges: after Hurricane Isabel in 2003, the Maryland Insurance Administration held town halls in Bowleys Quarters and Sparrows Point, two of the county's hardest-hit areas.
Where the mitigation money has gone
FEMA lists 18 funded projects since fiscal 2003, worth $8.8 million in federal share, or 6% of Maryland's mitigation money for 15% of its expected losses. Generators are the most common project, 7 of the 18, but they drew less than a tenth of the money. The rest mostly went to flooding: about $3.9 million to buy out 13 flood-prone properties along streams, $1.3 million after Isabel to elevate 35 coastal properties, and $1.5 million in congressionally directed pre-disaster funds for a Turner Station flood-modeling and resilience roadmap. No funded project addresses heat.
The mitigation plan
FEMA approved the Baltimore County Hazard Mitigation Plan on January 18, 2022, and that approval expires on January 17, 2027. FEMA's plan-status data lists the county's next update as in progress. The county needs an approved plan in place to keep receiving FEMA mitigation grants.
What we'd look at next
The first item is the calendar: the update needs FEMA approval before January 17, 2027, or the county loses access to mitigation grants until it has one. After that, the county can build on work it has done before: buyouts, elevations, and a Turner Station roadmap being developed with residents that can supply projects for the next funding round. Heat is the gap. At $42.6 million a year it is the county's second-largest loss, and the next plan is the place to put heat projects on the list.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Baltimore County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Inland flooding leads at $67.3M a year.
- Inland Flooding$67.3M43%
- Heat Wave$42.6M27%
- Hurricane$13.8M9%
- Earthquake$8.4M5%
- Cold Wave$7M4%
- Tornado$4.3M3%
- Strong Wind$3.5M2%
- Lightning$3.2M2%
Of the $157.1M total: buildings $89.9M, people $65.4M, agriculture $1.8M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flooding | $67.29M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 158 |
| Heat Wave | $42.56M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 84 |
| Hurricane | $13.77M | Relatively High | Relatively Moderate | 36 |
| Earthquake | $8.39M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | — |
| Cold Wave | $6.99M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 27 |
| Tornado | $4.28M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 28 |
| Strong Wind | $3.48M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 303 |
| Lightning | $3.23M | Very High | Very High | — |
| Winter Weather | $2.71M | Very High | Very High | 217 |
| Coastal Flooding | $1.6M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | — |
| Hail | $1.36M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 147 |
| Drought | $1.14M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 168 |
| Ice Storm | $223K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 68 |
| Wildfire | $27K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Landslide | $9K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Avalanche | $8 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Tsunami | — | Insufficient Data | Insufficient Data | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Baltimore County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 18
- Federal share
- $8.8M
- Fiscal years
- 2003–2023
By program
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$7M · 14 projects
- LPDM · Legislative Pre-Disaster Mitigation$1.8M · 3 projects
- FMA · Flood Mitigation Assistance$15K · 1 project
Most recent projects
FY2023 · LPDM · Obligated$1.48M
Other Non Construction
Baltimore County Department of Public Works
FY2020 · HMGP · Approved$449K
Vegetation Management - Erosion; Floodplain and Stream Restoration
MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION
FY2020 · HMGP · Approved$675K
Advanced Assistance
MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION
FY2018 · HMGP · Closed$158K
Generators
MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION
FY2018 · HMGP · Closed$23K
Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Baltimore (County)
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$822K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
Baltimore (County)
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$938K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
White Marsh
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$59K
Generators
Baltimore (County)
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Other Non ConstructionLPDM · LPDM-PJ-03-MD-2023-004 | Baltimore County Department of Public Works | $1.48M | Obligated |
| 2020 | Vegetation Management - Erosion; Floodplain and Stream RestorationHMGP · DR-4491-0014-R | MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION | $449K | Approved |
| 2020 | Advanced AssistanceHMGP · DR-4491-0007-R | MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION | $675K | Approved |
| 2018 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4374-0003-R | MARYLAND DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION | $158K | Closed |
| 2018 | Local Multihazard Mitigation PlanHMGP · DR-4374-0001-P | Baltimore (County) | $23K | Closed |
| 2016 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineHMGP · DR-4261-0016-R | Baltimore (County) | $822K | Closed |
| 2016 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineHMGP · DR-4261-0014-R | White Marsh | $938K | Closed |
| 2016 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4261-0006-F | Baltimore (County) | $59K | Closed |
What the money paid for most often
- Generators ×7
- Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine ×3
- Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan ×3
- Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal ×2
Hazard mitigation plan
Baltimore County Hazard Mitigation Plan
FEMA approved the county's current plan in January 2022. FEMA's plan-status data lists the next update as in progress.
- Adopted
- January 2022
- FEMA approval runs to
- January 17, 2027
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
- Baltimore CityRelatively High risk · Inland Flooding$136.3Ma year
- Harford CountyRelatively Low risk · Inland Flooding$51.4Ma year
- Carroll CountyRelatively Low risk · Inland Flooding$32.3Ma year
- Howard CountyRelatively Low risk · Inland Flooding$52Ma year
- Anne Arundel CountyRelatively Moderate risk · Inland Flooding$74.7Ma year
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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