Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Worcester carries the largest expected annual hazard loss on the Eastern Shore, $25.5 million, and hurricanes account for 41% of it. Yet it has drawn less FEMA mitigation money than all but three Maryland counties, $600 thousand since fiscal 2002, and the only grant since fiscal 2016 is $22,500 for Ocean City's plan update in fiscal 2020. Since October 2025 the county has also been without a FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plan, though Ocean City keeps its own.
What drives the risk
Hurricanes, inland flooding (25%) and coastal flooding (18%) together make up 84% of expected losses. Ocean City sits on a barrier island that fills up during hurricane season: the county's 2020 plan counted 6,927 year-round Ocean City residents in 2018 against an average summer population of 276,812. Repeat flood claims tell a different story: of the 60 repetitive-loss properties the plan counted in 2018, 58 were in unincorporated areas, clustered in the bay-side communities of Snug Harbor and Ocean Pines, and two were in Ocean City.
FEMA rates Worcester's social vulnerability relatively moderate, at 50, and its community resilience very high, at 91.8, so the overall risk rating is relatively low.
Where the mitigation money has gone
Eleven of the 13 funded projects came through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, and the largest was $124 thousand for culverts in Berlin. Most of the rest paid for stormwater diversions and flap gates in Ocean City, warning systems, two building elevations and plans. The only wind retrofits in the county's OpenFEMA record, two Ocean City applications in fiscal 2008, were denied. The barrier island's main defense sits outside these grants: the Atlantic Coast of Maryland Shoreline Protection Project, a beach, bulkhead and dune system built by the Army Corps with the state, county and town, which the Corps estimated in 2017 had prevented roughly $927 million in damage.
The mitigation plan
The 2020 Worcester County Hazard Mitigation and Resilience Plan, adopted by the county commissioners on October 6, 2020, lost its FEMA approval on October 5, 2025. The county's request for consultant proposals to update it closed on October 28, 2025, three weeks after the lapse, and public meetings on the update ran in August and September 2026. Ocean City plans separately: its 2023 Hazard Mitigation Plan is approved through March 19, 2028, and the county update covers the other incorporated towns.
What we'd look at next
Until FEMA approves the new plan, the county and its towns other than Ocean City are not eligible for FEMA mitigation project grants, so finishing it comes first. We'd use the update to build a project list for bay-side communities such as Snug Harbor and Ocean Pines, where the repeat flood claims cluster, outside the beach project's area. The beach itself depends on federal appropriations: this cycle's renourishment slipped from 2025 to an expected start in October 2026 because Congress had not authorized the funding.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Worcester County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Hurricane leads at $10.5M a year.
- Hurricane$10.5M41%
- Inland Flooding$6.3M25%
- Coastal Flooding$4.5M18%
- Cold Wave$2M8%
- Heat Wave$470K2%
- Drought$379K1%
- Strong Wind$299K1%
- Earthquake$255K1%
Of the $25.5M total: buildings $18.9M, people $3.3M, agriculture $3.3M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | $10.53M | Relatively High | Relatively Moderate | 70 |
| Inland Flooding | $6.32M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 24 |
| Coastal Flooding | $4.55M | Relatively High | Relatively High | — |
| Cold Wave | $1.99M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 22 |
| Heat Wave | $470K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 64 |
| Drought | $379K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 105 |
| Strong Wind | $299K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 26 |
| Earthquake | $255K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Tornado | $151K | Very Low | Very Low | 9 |
| Winter Weather | $149K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 99 |
| Lightning | $148K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Wildfire | $119K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Ice Storm | $112K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 20 |
| Hail | $36K | Very Low | Very Low | 21 |
| Landslide | $66 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Tsunami | — | Insufficient Data | Insufficient Data | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Worcester County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 13
- Federal share
- $600K
- Fiscal years
- 2002–2020
By program
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$560K · 11 projects
- BRIC · Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities$23K · 1 project
- FMA · Flood Mitigation Assistance$18K · 1 project
Most recent projects
FY2020 · BRIC · Awarded$23K
Ocean City Maryland Hazard Mitigation Plan Update
Mayor and City Council of Ocean City
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$89K
Stormwater Management - Diversions
Ocean City
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$23K
Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Ocean City
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$75K
Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal
HABITAT FOR HUMANITY
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$23K
Other Equipment Purchase and Installation
Ocean City
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$53K
Stormwater Management - Flapgates/Floodgates
Ocean City
FY2013 · HMGP · Closed$63K
Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal
Ocean City
FY2012 · HMGP · Closed$124K
Stormwater Management - Culverts
Berlin
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Ocean City Maryland Hazard Mitigation Plan UpdateBRIC · EMP-2020-BR-005-0009 | Mayor and City Council of Ocean City | $23K | Awarded |
| 2016 | Stormwater Management - DiversionsHMGP · DR-4261-0008-F | Ocean City | $89K | Closed |
| 2014 | Local Multihazard Mitigation PlanHMGP · DR-4170-0003-P | Ocean City | $23K | Closed |
| 2014 | Elevation of Private Structures - CoastalHMGP · DR-4170-0008-R | HABITAT FOR HUMANITY | $75K | Closed |
| 2014 | Other Equipment Purchase and InstallationHMGP · DR-4170-0005-F | Ocean City | $23K | Closed |
| 2014 | Stormwater Management - Flapgates/FloodgatesHMGP · DR-4170-0006-R | Ocean City | $53K | Closed |
| 2013 | Elevation of Private Structures - CoastalHMGP · DR-4091-0019-R | Ocean City | $63K | Closed |
| 2012 | Stormwater Management - CulvertsHMGP · DR-4038-0011-R | Berlin | $124K | Closed |
What the money paid for most often
- Warning Systems (as a Component of a Planned, Adopted, and Exercised Risk Reduction Plan) ×2
- Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan ×2
- Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal ×2
- Stormwater Management - Diversions ×1
Hazard mitigation plan
2020 Worcester County Hazard Mitigation and Resilience Plan
Adopted by the county commissioners in Resolution 20-31 on October 6, 2020. FEMA’s approval expired on October 5, 2025, and the county is updating the plan; Ocean City has its own plan, approved by FEMA through March 19, 2028.
- Adopted
- October 2020
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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