Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Harford County's risk comes down to one hazard. Inland flooding accounts for $29.9 million of the county's $51.4 million in expected annual losses, 58%, but its FEMA mitigation money has gone mostly to backup power: one $2.2 million generator grant makes up about two-thirds of the $3.2 million spent in the county since fiscal 2003.
What drives the risk
FEMA's inland flooding model counts rain that overwhelms drainage as well as rivers leaving their banks, and Harford gets both. The county's nuisance flooding plan says nuisance flooding is common on homes and businesses along the Susquehanna River, while elsewhere heavy rain sends flash floods across roads and low-lying culverts can't keep up. Buildings carry 66% of the county's expected losses.
The next hazards trail far behind: heat waves at $5.4 million a year and hurricanes at $3.9 million. Coastal flooding, despite the county's Bay shoreline, is modeled at just $109 thousand.
Harford's overall risk rating is relatively low. Its social vulnerability score is the lowest FEMA gives, shared by 334 U.S. counties, and its community resilience rates very high.
Where the mitigation money has gone
FEMA lists nine funded projects worth $3.2 million, 2% of Maryland's mitigation money for 5% of its expected losses. Generators took about 80% of it, led by the $2.2 million grant that followed Hurricane Irene in 2011. Two buyouts and two elevations of flood-prone properties drew less than $500 thousand combined.
The record has also gone quiet. The last funded project dates to fiscal 2018, and Harford has none under DR-4491, Maryland's COVID-19 declaration, whose mitigation money reached 17 of the state's 24 jurisdictions.
The mitigation plan
The 2022 plan covers the county and its three municipalities, Aberdeen, Bel Air and Havre de Grace. FEMA's approval runs through August 4, 2027, and FEMA lists the update as in progress. According to the county's nuisance flooding plan, the mitigation plan focuses on four areas: making existing structures resistant to flood damage, building awareness of floodplain hazards, protecting critical facilities and updating stormwater management plans.
What we'd look at next
The plan's priorities point at flooding, and the grant record points at generators. The update now underway is the time to close that gap: turn the first priority, flood-resistant existing structures, into a list of named properties and road crossings with cost estimates, starting from the flood-prone roads the nuisance flooding plan already inventories. A county with no funded FEMA mitigation project since fiscal 2018 needs designs ready before the next disaster declaration opens post-disaster money.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Harford County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Inland flooding leads at $29.9M a year.
- Inland Flooding$29.9M58%
- Heat Wave$5.4M11%
- Hurricane$3.9M8%
- Cold Wave$3.5M7%
- Earthquake$2M4%
- Strong Wind$2M4%
- Lightning$1.2M2%
- Tornado$1.2M2%
Of the $51.4M total: buildings $34.1M, people $15.9M, agriculture $1.3M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flooding | $29.89M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 81 |
| Heat Wave | $5.4M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 81 |
| Hurricane | $3.85M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 32 |
| Cold Wave | $3.49M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 28 |
| Earthquake | $2.02M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Strong Wind | $2M | Relatively High | Relatively Moderate | 282 |
| Lightning | $1.24M | Relatively High | Relatively Moderate | — |
| Tornado | $1.15M | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 25 |
| Drought | $994K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 210 |
| Winter Weather | $976K | Very High | Relatively High | 225 |
| Ice Storm | $180K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | 74 |
| Coastal Flooding | $109K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Hail | $54K | Very Low | Very Low | 134 |
| Wildfire | $12K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Landslide | $2K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Avalanche | $3 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Tsunami | — | Insufficient Data | Insufficient Data | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Harford County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 9
- Federal share
- $3.2M
- Fiscal years
- 2003–2016
By program
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$3M · 7 projects
- FMA · Flood Mitigation Assistance$253K · 2 projects
Most recent projects
FY2016 · HMGP · Closed$207K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
Harford (County)
FY2014 · HMGP · Closed$335K
Generators
Harford (County)
FY2013 · HMGP · Closed$4K
Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal
Aberdeen
FY2012 · HMGP · Closed$117K
Utility Protective Measures (Electric, Gas, etc.)
Bel Air
FY2012 · HMGP · Closed$66K
Generators
Bel Air
FY2011 · HMGP · Closed$2.2M
Generators
Harford (County)
FY2007 · FMA · Closed$25K
FMA or CRS Plan
Town of Bel Air
FY2007 · FMA · Closed$228K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
Harford County Government
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineHMGP · DR-4261-0019-R | Harford (County) | $207K | Closed |
| 2014 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4170-0013-R | Harford (County) | $335K | Closed |
| 2013 | Elevation of Private Structures - CoastalHMGP · DR-4091-0017-R | Aberdeen | $4K | Closed |
| 2012 | Utility Protective Measures (Electric, Gas, etc.)HMGP · DR-4075-0003-R | Bel Air | $117K | Closed |
| 2012 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4038-0014-R | Bel Air | $66K | Closed |
| 2011 | GeneratorsHMGP · DR-4034-0010-R | Harford (County) | $2.2M | Closed |
| 2007 | FMA or CRS PlanFMA · FMA-PL-03-MD-2007-003 | Town of Bel Air | $25K | Closed |
| 2007 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineFMA · FMA-PJ-03-MD-2007-002 | Harford County Government | $228K | Closed |
What the money paid for most often
- Generators ×3
- Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine ×2
- Elevation of Private Structures - Coastal ×1
- FMA or CRS Plan ×1
Hazard mitigation plan
2022 Harford County Hazard Mitigation Plan
A multi-jurisdictional plan covering Harford County, Aberdeen, Bel Air and Havre de Grace. FEMA's plan-status data lists the next update as in progress.
- Adopted
- 2022
- FEMA approval runs to
- August 4, 2027
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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