Last updated: · Scores from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025)
Caroline's expected hazard losses are modest by Maryland standards, $12.5 million a year, but 28% of them fall on farms, the second-highest agricultural share in the state after Kent County. The county's own plan ranks drought among its top risks, and FEMA's model agrees, rating it relatively high. Yet Caroline has drawn less FEMA mitigation money than any other Eastern Shore county: $247 thousand since fiscal 1994.
What drives the risk
Hurricanes lead the model at $4.8 million (38%), followed by inland flooding (21%) and drought (14%), the county's only hazard rated relatively high and the fourth-largest drought loss in Maryland. The county plan ranks riverine flooding, drought, excessive heat and thunderstorms highest, and notes that agriculture has been the county's major industry since its founding. Flooding concentrates in Federalsburg, at the head of tide on Marshyhope Creek, where floods have inundated parts of town since the 19th century; the plan's loss estimates put 235 affected buildings there in a 100-year flood, against 36 in Greensboro and two in Denton.
Social vulnerability is relatively moderate, at 58.7, but community resilience, at 56, is the lowest on the Eastern Shore and second lowest in Maryland after Prince George's County. Modest expected losses keep the overall risk rating relatively low.
Where the mitigation money has gone
Of the six funded projects in FEMA’s records, the largest, $94 thousand, paid for a generator in Ridgely in fiscal 2010, and two early grants bought flood-prone property in Greensboro under the 1994 winter storm and 1999 Hurricane Floyd declarations. Three more paid for the county plan and its updates, including $27 thousand under Maryland's COVID-19 declaration. None has gone to Federalsburg, whose three applications, all from 1994, were denied or withdrawn. None addresses drought.
The mitigation plan
The 2024 Caroline County Hazard Mitigation Plan covers the county and its 10 towns. FEMA approved it on November 25, 2024, with approval through November 24, 2029, and all 10 towns adopted it during 2025. The update added dam failure and emerging infectious diseases as hazards, and 39 of its 63 mitigation actions address the four hazards it ranks highest.
What we'd look at next
Caroline's plan is current; what it lacks is a funded project pipeline, and its grant record is the smallest on the Eastern Shore. We'd start with Federalsburg, where the plan's own numbers put most of the county's flood exposure and no FEMA project has landed, and build one well-scoped acquisition or floodproofing application from there. Drought needs a different toolkit, since FEMA's model counts drought losses only on crops and none of the county's FEMA grants has touched them.
Hazards ranked by expected annual loss
What FEMA expects each hazard to cost Caroline County in an average year, in damage to buildings and crops and in the dollar value it puts on deaths and injuries. Hurricane leads at $4.8M a year.
- Hurricane$4.8M38%
- Inland Flooding$2.7M21%
- Drought$1.7M14%
- Cold Wave$787K6%
- Strong Wind$765K6%
- Heat Wave$459K4%
- Tornado$295K2%
- Earthquake$275K2%
Of the $12.5M total: buildings $6.6M, people $2.4M, agriculture $3.5M.
All 18 hazards FEMA scores
| Hazard | Expected annual loss | Loss rating | Risk rating | Events on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | $4.83M | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 28 |
| Inland Flooding | $2.68M | Very Low | Very Low | 23 |
| Drought | $1.74M | Relatively High | Relatively High | 154 |
| Cold Wave | $787K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 15 |
| Strong Wind | $765K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 157 |
| Heat Wave | $459K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 89 |
| Tornado | $295K | Very Low | Very Low | 6 |
| Earthquake | $275K | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Coastal Flooding | $198K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Lightning | $160K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Hail | $125K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 60 |
| Wildfire | $97K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | — |
| Winter Weather | $90K | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | 142 |
| Ice Storm | $42K | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | 31 |
| Landslide | $60 | Very Low | Very Low | — |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
| Tsunami | — | Insufficient Data | Insufficient Data | — |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable | Not Applicable | — |
FEMA hazard mitigation grants
Projects FEMA has funded in Caroline County through its Hazard Mitigation Assistance programs, as OpenFEMA lists them. Grants to towns and cities inside the county count here; statewide grants don’t.
- Funded projects
- 6
- Federal share
- $247K
- Fiscal years
- 1994–2020
By program
- HMGP · Hazard Mitigation Grant Program$105K · 3 projects
- LPDM · Legislative Pre-Disaster Mitigation$94K · 1 project
- PDM · Pre-Disaster Mitigation$48K · 2 projects
Most recent projects
FY2020 · HMGP · Closed$27K
Local Multijurisdictional Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Caroline (County)
FY2016 · PDM · Closed$28K
Local Multijurisdictional Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Caroline County
FY2010 · LPDM · Closed$94K
Generators
Town of Ridgely
FY2009 · PDM · Closed$20K
Local Multihazard Mitigation Plan
Caroline Coutny
FY1999 · HMGP · Closed$50K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Coastal
Greensboro
FY1994 · HMGP · Closed$28K
Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine
GREENSBORO
| FY | Project | Recipient | Federal share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Local Multijurisdictional Multihazard Mitigation PlanHMGP · DR-4491-0003-P | Caroline (County) | $27K | Closed |
| 2016 | Local Multijurisdictional Multihazard Mitigation PlanPDM · PDMC-PL-03-MD-2016-009 | Caroline County | $28K | Closed |
| 2010 | GeneratorsLPDM · LPDM-PJ-03-MD-2010-009 | Town of Ridgely | $94K | Closed |
| 2009 | Local Multihazard Mitigation PlanPDM · PDMC-PL-03-MD-2009-002 | Caroline Coutny | $20K | Closed |
| 1999 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - CoastalHMGP · DR-1303-0002-R | Greensboro | $50K | Closed |
| 1994 | Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - RiverineHMGP · DR-1016-0008-R | GREENSBORO | $28K | Closed |
What the money paid for most often
- Local Multijurisdictional Multihazard Mitigation Plan ×2
- Generators ×1
- Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Riverine ×1
- Acquisition of Private Real Property (Structures and Land) - Coastal ×1
Hazard mitigation plan
2024 Caroline County Hazard Mitigation Plan
A multi-jurisdictional plan covering the county and its 10 towns, approved by FEMA on November 25, 2024, and adopted by every town during 2025. FEMA requires an update every five years for the county to stay eligible for its mitigation grants.
- Adopted
- November 2024
- FEMA approval runs to
- November 24, 2029
Frequently Asked Questions
Neighboring counties
About this data
Scores. FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025 release) ranks every U.S. county against all the others. A score is a percentile: a risk score of 82 means a higher value than 82% of counties. The risk index is the expected annual loss scaled up for higher social vulnerability and down for stronger community resilience. FEMA groups risk and loss into five ratings by natural breaks, and vulnerability and resilience into national fifths.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled average yearly loss from 18 natural hazards to buildings (at replacement value), crops and livestock, and people, whose expected deaths and injuries FEMA converts to dollars. It is an average, not a forecast: a low-risk county can still have a bad year.
Vulnerability and resilience. Social vulnerability comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates. Community resilience is FEMA’s version of the University of South Carolina’s Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (2020), which counts past mitigation spending among its inputs. Vulnerability scores bottom out: 334 of the 3,144 counties scored, 8 of them in Maryland, share the lowest score, 10.6. Population is the 2020 Census count.
Grants are FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance awards in Maryland that are closed, approved, obligated or awarded: the projects in OpenFEMA’s older project file, which FEMA froze on August 31, 2026, plus the grants FEMA has managed in FEMA GO since fiscal 2020, from HMA Subapplications (both retrieved September 30, 2026). Projects FEMA now lists as withdrawn or denied are left out unless money was obligated to them. Amounts are the federal share obligated. Each grant counts toward the county it serves; 103 statewide grants ($24.1M) count toward none.
FEMA describes the index as one source for risk-reduction decisions, to weigh alongside benefit-cost analysis and local knowledge.
National Risk IndexRisk Index data (OpenFEMA)HMA Subapplications (OpenFEMA)Risk Index FAQ (FEMA, PDF)
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